Board of Education At Large 9 seat – analysis and prediction

As I noted in the previous post, the voter turn-out in District 4 will likely be the determining factor in the AL-8 race. The AL-9 race between Jason Esteves and Lori James will also be determined by voter turnout – but in this case, the race depends on the turnout in both D-3 and D-4.

Here is the analysis – and it could be a very close race.

First, let’s look at the anticipated turnout for D-1 and 2. Because both of these races were decided in November, there are no local candidates running to increase turnout. And while a runoff race typically has 50% of the original voters return to the polls for the runoff, my sense is that the turnout will be closer to 45%.

Additionally, I have made some assumptions on how the votes for Sean Norman, Eddie Lee Brewster and Ed Johnson will be split between the two remaining candidates. The assessment is in favor of Esteves, as both Norman and Brewster Johnson have endorsed him.

Given these assumptions, my estimate is that in these two Districts, the vote will be nearly tied with 2,100 for Esteves and 2,200 for James.

Then we look to the two Districts with local candidates running – D-5 and D-6. Because the four candidates in these Districts are working hard to get out the vote, the percent of voters returning to the polls could be in the 58% range in both Districts. Given these assumptions, it is likely that D-5 will split evenly between Esteves and James and D-6 will go for James. An estimate of the votes for both candidates in the combined District 5 and 6 is 4,100 for Esteves and 5,100 for James.

Before taking into account D-3 and D-4, that puts James in the lead with a total of approximately 7,300 votes to Esteves’ 6,200 votes.

And this is where turnout in D-3 and D-4 come into play. Both Districts went to Esteves in the initial election and he can easily make up the deficit in these two Districts.

However, if the turnout in D-3 and D-4 is at the 50% level,  the race could be  a virtual tie and ultimately be decided by a very small number of votes. If turnout is above 50% of the original voters, then the race favors Esteves – below 50%, it favors James.

As in all runoff’s, the voter turnout is the key to winning. And in the AL-9 race, the voters in Districts 3 and 4 hold all the cards – if they turn out to vote, Esteves wins. If not, then James wins.

Your decision to vote in these Districts will determine who wins and how the new Board of Education looks in January. Please take your civic responsibility seriously.

Your vote matters!

[Follow me on Twitter @Financial_Decon]

2 Responses to Board of Education At Large 9 seat – analysis and prediction

  1. Gary Jones says:

    Esteves has my vote as does Brown

  2. Andrea Knight says:

    Far from neutral impact, in December APS-1 gave Esteves an 884 vote lead over James (14% of his total lead of 6,291 votes). Overall, APS-1’s turnout was only 24% of November turnout. However, half of the voters who returned were from five of Leslie Grant’s strongest precincts (Grant Park, Ormewood Park & Candler Park). In those five precincts, December turnout was about one-third of November turnout (higher in Candler, lower in GP/OP). In the remaining precincts, December turnout was 17% of November.

    In November, Esteves received two-thirds of votes cast in Candler Park. By December, it was 90%. In November, Esteves received half of votes cast in Grant/Ormewood Parks. By December it was 86%.

    Esteves ran a great campaign that posted gains citywide, possibly in every precinct. But those of us with extensive exposure to the Seat 9 candidates while working on Leslie’s campaign became very vocal supporters of Esteves as soon as Leslie won. That had a major impact in City Council 1, especially Grant/Ormewood Parks.

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