Atlanta Public School issues preliminary FY15 budget – here is a summary of expenditures and projected enrollment [Updated]


The Atlanta Public Schools administration released their preliminary budget proposal for FY15. As always, the presentation represents a “numbers dump” with limited summary information. In fact, the budget document provided to the Board was over 150 pages of departmental detailed numbers and only had a one page summary (you can see the presentation here).

As a brief overview, revenues (which are not included in the chart below) are projected at $633 million as compared to $595 million in FY14 – an increase of $38 million or 6.4%. Accordingly, the current budget proposal is balanced with the use of $25 million in General Fund reserves.

In an effort to start the conversation going, below is a chart (click to enlarge) that presents the FY15 proposed expenditure budget in comparison to prior year expenditure budgets. The FY14 numbers represent the amended budget and FY12 and FY13 are actuals.

The format is one that I have used extensively and presents a summary by department, program or function. At this point, I am not offering any analysis, but will provide that in future posts. [Update – the chart below has been corrected – the previous version included the wrong data for FY15]

APS FY15 Preliminary Budget 031514

In advance of doing a detailed review, I think it is important to focus on the highlighted lines in the chart above that show the spending trends for certain departments.

It will also be useful to compare these trends with the enrollment trends in the chart below as they further place the expenditures in context of how the system is changing over time. Below is a chart with enrollment for FY12, FY13 and FY14 (these numbers are based on reports submitted by APS to the GA DOE in October of each year). In addition, the FY15 projections for the traditional schools were provided by APS. I estimated the charter school enrollment based on one conversion charter for next year, plus the opening of Atlanta Classical Academy and plus an estimate for enrollment expansion of existing charter schools. (click to enlarge).

APS FY15 Enrollment 031514

In addition, it is also important to understand staffing levels to further place the expenditure activity in context. I am working on that and will publish it when complete.

[Follow me on Twitter @Financial_Decon]

4 Responses to Atlanta Public School issues preliminary FY15 budget – here is a summary of expenditures and projected enrollment [Updated]

  1. Jarod Apperson says:

    It looks like APS is over-projecting its enrollment by about 1,300 students for FY15.

    My guess for the actual charter increase is closer to 1,800. ACA (450), Centennial (600), Drew High (100), Drew Elem/Mid (50), Latin (100), Strive Primary (110), WAYS Primary (110), Vision Primary (110), WACS (40), Kindezi (32), KIPP Collegiate (90).

    Based on birth data from 2009, Kindergarten for the traditional schools should be around 3,875. The other grades are easy to predict based on prior-year enrollment for the grade above. Then you just need to remove ACA and Centennial.

    My total projection for the traditional schools is 41,822.

    We’ll see what happens.

    • Jarod –

      Based on your comments, I looked at this more closely and I am confirming charter school enrollments with Alan Mueller.

      Also, after looking at the historical data, the transfer rate from traditional to charter schools is not 1 to 1 (after taking other enrollment factors into consideration) – historically it was 60% in FY14 and appears to be projected at 50% in FY15. After adjusting for charter school transfer rates, the current projection infers that the enrollment will increase in the traditional schools by nearly 500 students. That appears to be high to me as well.

      I am doing further research on this and will update the information as I hear back from the APS demographer.

      Bob

    • Jarod –

      Based on your comments, I looked at this more closely and I am confirming charter school enrollments with Alan Mueller.

      Also, after looking at the historical data, the transfer rate from traditional to charter schools is not 1 to 1 (after taking other enrollment factors into consideration) – historically it was 60% in FY14 and appears to be projected at 50% in FY15. After adjusting for charter school transfer rates, the current projection infers that the enrollment will increase in the traditional schools by nearly 500 students. That appears to be high to me as well.

      I am doing further research on this and will update the information as I hear back from the APS demographer.

      Bob

      Robert F. Stockwell

      Stockwell Consulting, Inc.

      404-229-6841

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